— Prime Minister-elect Narendra Modi taking the oath of office as the Prime Minister of Bharat.
With these words the long-stretched and intensely campaigned but ultimately boring Lok Sabha Election came to a final conclusion. Interestingly, a few moments that took place in the post-result scenario were the most thrilling part. After all the “Mangalsutra-Musalman” and “Khata-Khat” drama, when the results were being awaited, not just the Exit Polls but in general everybody was at least expecting the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to get the majority on its own leaving aside the “400 paar” ambition. But this time the script was far more interesting than Jay Shah could ever write. So why and how things came to this Janadesh (People's Verdict)?
DISCLAIMER: As common citizens of Bharat, we have the Freedom of Speech and Expression to express any kind of thought which may appear to some as idiosyncratic or fantastic until it doesn't violate restrictions on such freedom. Things expressed in this article are solely personal opinions of the writers not indicating any experience in decoding political dramas and their outcomes.
In 2014, the BJP came to power with 283 seats on its own, primarily riding on Congress's anti-incumbency due to blatant corruption and high inflation. The Congress had reached its lowest at 44. In 2019 it wasn't BJP but Modi who was brought to power once again and this time with a bigger majority of 303. Modi's charisma along with nationalism and welfarism played the primary role in such a result with Congress bettering only to reach 52 seats.
But 2024 happened to be something very different which most hadn't expected. 293 for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and 234 for the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), quite a tough and interesting contest. I'm using ‘NDA' because that's the acronym the Prime Minister’s been using and will also use in the future to refer to his third-term government, not ‘BJP’. It's no longer the BJP Government because the party missed the majority mark settling with 240 seats. And now, it depends on its allies in the NDA to run the government. That's why a meme was also going on calling it a "Mili-Julie Sarkar" (Mixed Government) with the posters of three movies— Mili (1975), Julie (1975) and Sarkar (2005).
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| The Mili-Julie Sarkar meme |
On one hand, the winning side has been all sad, posing with a smiley face mask, on the other hand, the losing side has been partying as if they've made it to 400. Even with better and improved performance, INDIA is still a much messier khichdi than NDA as in the latter there's at least the BJP with a big bold number, but in the former the largest party, Congress won just 99. Thus NDA forming the government is a much better outcome than the bandar-baant (messy scramble) that would've happened had INDIA been forming the government.
You don’t need to be a Maharathi (Expert) in politics to decipher the biggest and most crucial reason for such an outcome of this election. You just need to check out BJP’s campaign. Since the very start of this election, the BJP has been acting very overconfident. The biggest proof of that is the “400 paar” slogan. This overconfidence wasn’t just among the top brass but also among the karyakartas of the party. Most of them showed complacency and indifference towards campaigning on the ground. This attitude even crept into the core supporters of the party that if not “400 paar”, Modi was going to form a full majority government. In addition to the overconfidence, the party became too dependent on the cult figure of Narendra Modi. As a result, this time his image also seems to have taken a hit. This very overconfidence and overdependence with multiple other reasons adding up has delivered such a result.
As the former poll strategist Prashant Kishor rightly pointed out the BJP’s slogan of “400 paar” was a half slogan, they left it open. “...Jaise 2014 mein nara bana tha ‘Bahut hui Mehangai ki maar, Abki baar Modi Sarkar’. So [the] purpose was defined. Kyun Modi Sarkar? Kyunki mehangai ko kam karna hai… (...Like in 2014, the slogan was ‘Enough of Inflation's cruel scar, This time, it's Modi's Sarkar’. So the purpose was defined. Why Modi's government? Because the aim was to reduce inflation…),” he said in an interview to India Today. And this is where some BJP politicians made mistakes and the opposition grabbed the opportunity. When asked, “Kis liye chahiye 400 paar? (Why do you want 400 plus?),” some loudmouths of the BJP out of arrogance or ignorance said, “Samvidhan badalna hai (Want to change the Constitution)”.
Now you would rightly ask— How do the large swathes of mostly poor and not-so-literate people know or care about the “Constitution is going to end” theory? Right. The mostly poor public doesn't have enough acumen to understand the Constitution or the elite argument for the Constitution being changed. But what they understand is that the Constitution is what has granted them the opportunity to have equal rights and reservations to the oppressed classes of society. And this is what the opposition tapped into, giving the call that if BJP comes to power they'll change the Constitution, ‘leading to the end of reservations’. And as you know reservations are still a very sensitive issue in the country because of the high inequality which still persists between those of the reserved classes and those of the unreserved classes. And this is what rallied SCs and OBCs against the BJP in mass numbers, leading to losses across many states.
The other primary reason for such a major setback was that the BJP's top brass was highly unaware and ignorant of the ground realities. Everybody very heavily relied on Modi’s face. Many had the attitude that ultimately people won’t see their faces while voting, they’ll vote in the name of Modi so they don’t need to worry. BJP’s 26 sitting MPs from Uttar Pradesh lost after being re-fielded. Why? Many MPs did not bother to be seen in their constituencies after being elected. These MPs did little to address the concerns of the people which turned into anger against them being re-fielded. This reason was evident in many other states too, but was a very prominent factor for the BJP’s loss in Uttar Pradesh. There was not a mass-scale anger against the party’s face, Narendra Modi, instead most wanted him to continue but the anger was against the local leaders and the wrongly chosen contesting candidates. Some even felt that anyways BJP is getting 400 plus, so a lesson must be taught to the local MP who hasn’t worked in the constituency.
Plus, BJP’s expansionist strategy to induct defectors from other parties sparked internal dissatisfaction and anger among long-time members. BJP’s ‘washing machine’ cleaning up hundreds of allegedly corrupt politicians and also fielding many in the Lok Sabha elections was not something both the public and the party cadre liked. Many karyakartas showed hesitancy and did not indulge themselves in campaigning for such politicians, saying that they had run campaigns against these very politicians and now they had to serve them. How could they go to the public asking for votes for the same person they had campaigned against? And how was the public expected to be comfortable with such candidates? As a result, 69 of the 110 candidates who switched to the party since Narendra Modi became Prime Minister, have lost in this election.
Ram Mandir was not an issue at all on a mass scale. Had the elections started in February, just a few days after the consecration, with fewer voting phases, the issue might have had some impact. In Faizabad itself, the constituency where Ayodhya lies, the BJP lost. Why? In 2022 an Ayodhya resident who works as a street vendor was asked by Samdish Bhatia from Unfiltered by Samdish, “Mandir ban gaya iski khushi hai aapko? (Are you happy about the Mandir being built?)” He replied, “Mandir to bahut bana, bahut khushi hai. Lekin ab videsh jaane ke liye humlog taiyaar nahi hain (Yes we are very happy. But we’re not ready to move abroad).” Why did he say so? The construction of the Ram Mandir has led to a series of developmental projects across Ayodhya— widening of roads, construction of ghats, new drainage system, redeveloped railway station, new airport, etc. but for many residents there, it has come at an extreme cost. The widening of roads itself has led to the partial or complete demolition of nearly 4,000 homes and shops, affecting nearly 40,000 people. Many have lost their land and livelihood, and have been pushed deeper into poverty. Many have not received even a single paisa of compensation, while for many others whatever has been given has been severely inadequate. This revamp and “beautification” of the city has been the major reason for BJP’s loss, along with certain other factors being mentioned in this article.
People across the country were happy about the Mandir but their economic distress became more of a divisive factor while voting than any emotional issue. Repeated paper leaks and unemployment were the core issues driving the youth votes. When a paper leak happens and re-examination has to be done, the entire year’s effort and expenditure in the preparation of that exam gets wasted. Maybe for those enjoying their privileges, it might not seem to be a big issue but for those belonging to poor families in the villages aspiring for a sarkari naukri, this is a big factor because all the coaching fees and living expenses in a city that has to be borne by the family goes down the drain. But the governments don’t seem to see this as a big issue.
As per the CMIE data, in 2016-17 the Employment Rate was 42.79, which means that this much percentage of the total working-age population is employed whereas in 2023-24 this came down to 37.18, which means that the overall Employment Rate fell by 5.61 percentage points in the last 8 years. And I haven’t even put up the data on the level of employability of the youth and the quality of employment being provided. No doubt anger against persisting unemployment was seen to be a key issue in this election. “Annual inflation based on the Consumer Food Price Index (CPFI) averaged a mere 0.03 per cent in the 12 months from May 2018 leading to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. But in the 12-month run-up (May 2023-April 2024) to this year’s elections, retail food inflation has averaged 7.88 per cent,” the Indian Express reported. The government did try to control it by imposing stock limits, restricting exports of various food products and even importing several food products at minimal duty, but none of them came to be of enough help. Thus economic distress could have played a major role in shaping the numbers of the BJP.
Interestingly, where on the one hand, the government’s efforts in controlling food inflation didn’t help much in making the consumer class favourable to the BJP, on the other hand, the farmers, especially those from Maharashtra got angry because whenever prices of food like onions rose they thought they could earn more, but the government using export bans, stock limits, etc tried to bring the prices down, forcing these farmers to sell their produce at a much lower rate.
And now that we are on Maharashtra, splitting parties like the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) didn’t go well with the public. BJP had engineered the split of Shiv Sena into Shinde Sena and Uddhav Sena, and the NCP into NCP-Ajit and NCP-Sharad to form its government in the state. Not just to the cadre and supporters of these parties, but also to the common public, this seemed like a betrayal, where Eknath Shinde betrayed Uddhav Thackrey and Ajit Pawar betrayed Sharad Pawar for the sake of power. The sympathy factor was key. Additionally, the Maratha Reservation uproar also played a big role, denying the BJP any seat in the Marathwada region.
Another thing is that the opposition INDIA did a better job at fighting this election as a team. Wherever the seat-sharing applied, they did a good job of allocating appropriate seats to alliance parties. What this did is that wherever there was dissent against the incumbent BJP and its allies, those dissenting votes didn't split that much, leading to close contests in many seats with either the opposition being victorious or only a narrow-margin victory for BJP. A good example of this is Varanasi. The Hindustan Times reported, “The number of candidates (including NOTA) who contested against Modi in Varanasi was 42 in 2014, 26 in 2019 and just seven in 2024. In terms of vote share, the candidate who finished second in Varanasi had a vote share of 20.3% in 2014 and 18.4% in 2019 elections. This number has increased to 40.7% in 2024.” This shows that opposition unity being significantly larger in 2024 with proper Alliance Dharm being followed, at least in Uttar Pradesh, has been a crucial factor in the sharp fall of Narendra Modi’s victory margin from 4.79 lakh in 2019 to 1.52 lakh in 2024.
As you know caste dynamics is quite a determining factor in elections. This time the opposition also got their caste game right, like the Samajwadi Party (SP) which was perceived as a Muslim-Yadav party, this time gave fewer tickets to candidates belonging to those groups and diversified their candidates to garner votes from OBCs and Dalits who had become part of the BJP support base, while somehow the BJP failed at this game. Plus the opposition, primarily Rahul Gandhi, painting the picture of the BJP doing away with the Constitution and ultimately reservation if they get 400 seats worked quite well in accelerating support among these caste groups.
The addiction to freebies within both people and political parties played a significant role in states like West Bengal. The TMC lived in people's pockets and thus in their hearts, while the BJP might have lived in their minds, which tend to betray them when it comes to voting. Women-centric welfare schemes were already giving TMC an upper hand among women voters and the freebie scheme 'Lakshmir Bhandar' — under which ₹1000 monthly aid was provided to BPL (Below Poverty Line) women — was the real game-changer, especially in the rural areas of the state. The Sandeshkhali issue, perceived as BJP’s Nandigram moment, didn’t reflect anywhere in terms of votes. Plus, the BJP in Bengal has been busy infighting.
The 2024 story of BJD in Odisha is similar to BJP at the Centre. Both became prey to anti-incumbency even when the faces of both parties were fairly popular. Even its critics agree that BJD under Naveen Patnaik has done great work on human development in the state. But Orissa saw a one-man show for the last 24 years, and people wanted some change. Plus, for the past many years, a bureaucrat-turned-politician, VK Pandian is said to have run the government. He was seen as the successor of Naveen Patnaik. The BJP therefore convinced the people that they were not voting for Naveen but for Pandian, the unelected bureaucrat. This narrative was further boosted by the fact that Pandian is not an Odia, he’s from Tamil Nadu. BJP made this the central point of its campaign. The result? Naveen Patnaik himself had to declare that Pandian would not be his successor. The perception mattered and hence the BJP factored, sweeping the state not just in the Lok Sabha election but also getting a majority in the Vidhan Sabha, forming a BJP Government in the state for the first time.
We've delved into both the major pre and post-election factors determining the surprising results but the story doesn't stop here. These surprising results have also brought interesting post-result scenarios to look for.
BJP would’ve to make significant compromises to form the government, many said. The allocation of respective ministries, however, shows that the BJP will continue to dominate the government despite its coalition nature. The effect of the coalition would, however, be seen when they want to pass a law, since for that, they would need the support of further 32 members, apart from their own.
BJP is the single largest party in the Lok Sabha with a huge numerical difference to their advantage compared to the next largest party but they still have missed the majority by just 32 seats. However, their past records make it very evident that they can resort to all sorts of saam, daam, dand, bhed (Negotiation, Offerings, Force, Division) to make their position stronger. Thus it wouldn’t be shocking if, in the near future, the BJP fills up that gap using its so-branded “Operation Kamal”. Many seem to believe that the current tally is going to stick for the next 5 years. However, Maharashtra shows the opposite is not that impossible.
The opposition’s INDIA will also continue to try to make efforts to gather the numbers as has already been indicated by them. The known problem with the alliance is that there is more than one contender for every post including that of the Prime Minister. There is no unchallenged leader in the alliance, and hence the alliance is much less stable than the NDA.
The formation of government requires chemistry, not mathematics. Chemistry brings the required mathematics. The partners of the BJP seem more concerned with extracting benefits from the Centre for their respective states, hence they have been mostly silent or diplomatic on the allocation of ministerial posts. This seems to brush out any ambition for posts, which one saw during the post-emergency Janata government where some ministers wanted the death of the Prime Minister for themselves to take over that position.
Even after having a strong bargaining position and resourcefulness, it is rightly said that assuming the current tally continues, Narendra Modi will be on an unstable chair for this entire term, trying to balance between his vision and Nitish-Naidu’s nakhras (tantrums). Who knows what will happen in the next 2 years, as that's how long Nitish babu sticks with one alliance. Yes, him alone walking out won't make the government fall but wonder if he walks out with more than just his party.
“1990 ke dashak mein... kaha gaya Modi ji mass leader nahi ban sakte. Kya hua? End mein Modi ji mass leader ban gaye. 2001 mein Modi ji Gandhinagar jaate hain Mukhyamantri [banke]. Tab kaha jaata hai... woh to RSS ke pracharak hain, kabhi chunav nahi lada, woh kya kar payenge, kaise Mukhyamantri banenge... Kya hua? 12 saal Gujarat mein without a problem chal gaye. Phir jab woh 2014 mein Delhi aate hain... Tab kya hota hai? Narrative: yaar yeh Modi ji jo hain woh Gandhinagar tak seemit hain, Delhi ki rajneeti alag hoti hai... Kya hua? 10 saal ho gaye, ab woh Jawaharlal Nehru ki tarah...three consecutive terms unke honge. Phir kaha gaya Modi ji jo hain na domestic issues theek hain, lekin international affairs kaise... Kya hua? Modi ji has been projected at least as a global leader. Dekhiye, jab aap itne saal rajneeti mein rehte hain, aap jaante hain kaun sa button kab press karna hai. Modi ji mein do Modi ji hain ek hi vyakti mein: ek jo instinctively ek dominating figure hai, sabko mujhe dominate...mera hi photo chalega aur kisi ka nahi... Lekin doosri taraf woh pragmatic hain, pragmatic aadmi hain jo jaante hain kab kya karna hai (In the 1990s... it was said that Modi ji could never become a mass leader. What happened? In the end, Modi ji did become a mass leader. In 2001, when Modi ji goes to Gandhinagar as Chief Minister, it was said... he is an RSS pracharak, he has never contested an election, what will he be able to do, how will he become Chief Minister... What happened? He ran Gujarat for 12 years without a problem. Then when he comes to Delhi in 2014... What happens then? The narrative was: Modi ji is limited to Gandhinagar, Delhi politics is different... What happened? It has been 10 years, and now he might have three consecutive terms like Jawaharlal Nehru. Then it was said Modi ji is good with domestic issues, but how will he handle international affairs... What happened? Modi ji has been projected at least as a global leader. Look, when you are in politics for so many years, you know which button to press and when. There are two Modi jis in one person: one who is instinctively a dominating figure, wanting to dominate everyone... only his photo should be there and no one else’s... But on the other hand, he is pragmatic, a pragmatic person who knows what to do and when),” veteran journalist Rajdeep Sardesai said, pointing out that Narendra Modi will be able to navigate through the coalition difficulties given that BJP wins in at least 2 out 3 Vidhan Sabha elections scheduled at the end of this year.
And this is true. The coming Vidhan Sabha elections this year are very crucial for the BJP to heal the hit that the Modi figure has taken in the Lok Sabha and to emerge unchallenged in the NDA, after which it would be very difficult for any of the coalition partners to try to dictate the working of the government or to walk out of the coalition.
Out of the 96 crore eligible voters, 64 crore voted in the 2024 Lok Sabha election but the rest 32 crore didn’t. Why did these 32 crore people not exercise their vote? Will there be any reflection by the parties on that? Are these voters frustrated? Not sure. Once TN Seshan sahab said that you must choose your leaders based on the criteria which you will apply while choosing your son-in-law or brother-in-law, and if you believe that no one fulfils such criteria, it is not too late that you contest the election yourself. But it isn't very easy to contest an election without joining a political party. Therefore, one has to be corrupt or be blind to corruption happening around him or her to get elected.
“Is hamaam mein sab nange hain (Everyone’s naked in this bathroom).”
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Excellent 👌👌
ReplyDeleteexcellent
ReplyDeleteThe writing reflects the unsuccessful expectation of the BJP. Overconfidence has been the reason, the article says. Hence, the idea that the people of India are mostly illiterate hence do not deserve democracy has been countered by the people themselves. Political literacy demands street smartness. Bengal has also reflected street smartness. However, will this street smartness make us Developed Bharat?
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